College football picks: Week 14 spread trends and betting angles from proven expert
Through all of the changes in the college football landscape, “Rivalry Week” is one of the last, enduring staples of past eras. While many rivalries have been lost in recent years due to conference switching and scheduling, enough of them remain at the end of the regular season to remind us of past years and why likely why we became addicted to the sport years ago.There have been some “Rivalry Week” casualties in the conference shuffle. There was a time when Nebraska vs. Oklahoma was annually one of the highlights of the season, but that has been lost since the Huskers moved to the Big Ten. Oklahoma-Oklahoma State “Bedlam” has also been lost after the Sooners moved to the SEC last year, and the schools have yet to agree to resume the series. One of the sad things about the Texas A&M move to the SEC over a decade ago was the loss of the Thanksgiving weekend traditional against Texas, though thankfully that series has been revived with the Horns joining the Aggies in the SEC. In even-numbered years, the Notre Dame-USC game, when played at the L.A. Coliseum, was a every-other-year Rivalry Week staple, though it seems as if this historic series might be going away, at least for the near future, after the Trojans’ move to the Big Ten. Yet the best news for fans is that “Rivalry Week” figures to be safe for the near future as the new-look conferences seem to be going out of their way (a good thing!) to keep the special rivalries alive; the SEC, in particular, has made sure that future scheduling (at least the next five years) maintains three rivalry games for its members, most of those in Rivalry Week.Bet college football at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass with a winning $5 wager:As the years passed we began to note several trends, often specific to each of the Rivalry Week matchups, were more pronounced than any other week of the season. For the most part, many have endured into 2025, while new trends and angles specific to Rivalry Week have appeared as well. There have already been some rivalry games played this season and many of them have identifiable trends too. The “big” Rivalry Week, however, is upon us, and below, we note some of those “Rivalry Week” trends in front of this most fun of all college football weekends.Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday)
More color than usual this year with the Lane Kiffin chatter, but this has always been a colorful matchup and was played at the neutral Jackson site thru 1990. Lately, the road team has covered in the last five Egg Bowls, including the Bulldogs’ last outright win in this series back in 2022, which would be the last-ever game coached by Mike Leach. Iowa at Nebraska (Friday)
This rivalry is rather new and only kicked on when the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011, but it’s been the season-ender for both since. Note the road team is 4-0-1 vs. spread in last five meetings, with the Hawkeyes winning by identical 13-10 scores in the last two seasons.Air Force at Colorado State (Friday)
This isn’t Air Force’s most-traditional rivalry and CSU considers border rival Wyoming as its main enemy. Still, while the Force’s recruiting base is national, not regional, this still qualifies at least as a secondary rivalry as it is an in-state battle. Note the road team has covered last eight series meetings!Georgia at Georgia Tech (Friday)
Into 2016, and the last time Georgia Tech won a game at Athens, this was an astounding road-oriented series vs. the spread; at one point, visiting sides were 16-2-1 against the spread through 2017. That has mostly continued with Georgia when playing the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs haven’t lost outright to the Ramblin’ Wreck since 1999, and had covered 11 straight as a series visitor until 2023.Ohio State at Michigan
In recent years, we’ve been getting close to the heyday of this hate-filled border rivalry between 1969-78 when Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes used to battle for the Rose Bowl bid. We all know the current trend in this grudge match; the Wolverines turned around this series at the end of the Jim Harbaugh era and have now won and covered four straight against the Buckeyes. Prior to 2021, Ohio State had won in 15 of the previous 16 meetings!Kentucky at Louisville
There is still some bad blood here, at least for old timers on the Louisville side who remember how UK avoided facing the Cardinals until the mid 90s. Recently, the Cats had won and covered five straight in this series in front of last year’s 41-14 loss to the Cards at Lexington.Clemson at South Carolina
Another of the enduring SEC vs. ACC season-enders, this matchup has occasionally had national overtones like a year ago, when the Gamecocks won a 17-14 thriller at Death Valley. This Palmetto State special has been visitor-oriented lately, with road team winning outright the past five and covering the last seven meetings.Vanderbilt at Tennessee
For a long while, convenience and locale kept this as a season-ender in the Battle for Tennessee, though the Volunteers never seemed t consider this one as important as did Vandy people. That began to change when the Dores broke a 20+-year series losing streak when QB Jay Cutler was still at Vandy in 2005, and successes for the Dores in the James Franklin era. Lately, the road team has covered last six series meetings in this traditional season-ender.Wisconsin at Minnesota
The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe has mostly involved regional interest for decades. We have always been amused by the fact the “trophy” for this Upper Midwest battle was once “The Slab of Bacon,” at least thru 1971 when it disappeared, replaced by Bunyan’s Axe. The road team has won and covered the last three meetings.Wake Forest at Duke
This Tobacco Road rivalry has endured, though always hasn’t been played on the final weekend. The road team has covered in the last three meetings, with each game decided by 6 points or fewer.UCLA at USC
At one time, this intra-city rivalry in L.A. matched any in the country, especially some epic battles in the late 60s when Tommy Prothro arrived at UCLA to battle John McKay’s SC. UCLA was dominant in the 90s when unfurling an unprecedented eight-game series win streak, though Pete Carroll would eventually turn the series back to SC’s favor during his tenure, and the Trojans won 12 of 13 meetings in one stretch thru 2011. UCLA, which at one point went 16 years between wins at the Coliseum into 2013, has won the last two matchups as the road team.Florida State at Florida
There is a controversial history to this series that didn’t crank up until the 1960s and needed state government pressure to finally make it a fixture. For a while during the Bobby Bowden-Steve Spurrier eras, this was as important and colorful rivalry as there was in the country. It’s lost some luster in recent years, but note the road team has covered the last four meetings.Virginia Tech at Virginia
For a long while, this matchup has been a burr in the saddle to the Wahoos, who have only beaten the Hokies once since their 35-21 win over Frank Beamer’s VPI in 2003. The Gobblers have also covered the last four and seven of the last eight meetings, though are underdogs this weekend in a game that Virginia needs to clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Alabama at Auburn
This one has endured and even picked up momentum in recent decades as the Iron Bowl can rightly claim its spot as among the most-important rivalries not just in the SEC, but nationally. The host side is 7-0-1 against the spread in last eight Iron Bowls, with the Tigers giving the Tide all sorts of fits the last four at Jordan-Hare, covering each of those games (winning outright in 2017 & 2019), and where this Saturday’s game will be conducted.North Carolina at NC State
Hostilities have mostly been regional in this Tobacco Road matchup that, unlike Duke-Wake Forest, has stayed as a game in the final week of the season. Lately, it’s been advantage Wolfpack, who have won and covered last three of these meetings, with the last five clashes landing Over as well.As we have since mid- September, we note the weekly “Point Spread Reversal” listing, wherein we identify teams off a spread result, win or lose, different from at least its two preceding spread results. Again, another potential indicator of teams perhaps ready for a turnaround…good or bad.Point spread reversal plus (+)The teams: Auburn, Boise State, Kansas State, Kennesaw State, La Tech, Miami-Ohio, Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Navy, TCU, Tennessee, ULM, Troy, UMass*Through games of Nov. 22Even at this late stage of the season, we wouldn’t dismiss the above chart uncovering a couple of potential go-with sides for one more big effort in their final regular-season games. To that end, Auburn and Michigan, both facing their most-hated rivals this coming weekend, at least passed their tune-ups with flying colors and look ready to battle the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes, respectively. We might also keep an eye on Miami-Ohio, traditionally a strong closer for Chuck Martin in the MAC, after making a needed QB switch away from struggling Henry Hesson and rallying behind frosh Thomas Gotkowski last week at Buffalo. The RedHawks, now bowl-eligible, close their season on Saturday hosting Ball State.Point spread reversal minus (-)The teams: Clemson, Fresno State, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Kentucky, Iowa, Jacksonville State, Marshall, Missouri State, Nebraska, Purdue, Sam Houston, UConn, Utah*Through games of Nov. 22Conversely from the preceding Reversal Plus list, we look for teams in the above list that might have finally run out of gas as the regular season finish line approaches. Among those, we might be watching Missouri State, after punching above its weight all season in Conference USA, must regroup this weekend against Louisiana Tech after a gut-wrenching loss to Kennesaw State. Purdue, after battling hard for much of the season, has had a week off, but the wicked beatdown it suffered at Washington on November 15 showed a tired team for Barry Odom, and a daunting Old Oaken Bucket assignment this weekend against Indiana, which won the Bucket 66-0 last year. Nebraska, operating with backup QB TJ Lateef, also looked gassed last week at Penn State and must now face a rugged Iowa on Friday.Point spread win streaks5: North Texas, Central Michigan, Vanderbilt4: Florida Atlantic, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin3: Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Penn State, SMU, Toledo, Louisiana-Lafayette, Utah State, Wake Forest, Miami2: Appalachian State, Arizona, BYU, Iowa State, Nevada, Ohio State, Oregon, San Diego State, South Alabama, South Carolina, Stanford, Tulsa, UTSA, Washington, Washington State, Western Michigan*Through games of Nov. 22A recurring theme in the final few weeks of the season is that most teams don’t change course in mid-to-late November. For the handful that might, the previous Spread Reversal lists might provide some answers. Various degrees of interest in several of the teams above to continue their late-season spread successes for at least another week. We are also noting teams going nowhere and some operating with interim coaches that have found enough in reserve to keep playing in late November. Oklahoma State has now endured a wretched two seasons and saw Mike Gundy get the boot earlier this fall, but has played its best football of the current campaign the past three games and notched spread covers in each for interim Doug Meacham. Meanwhile, Nevada, which hadn’t won a Mountain West game in two years, has not only covered spreads the past two weeks but won outright against both San Jose State and Wyoming for Jeff Choate, who has at least secured his position for next season. We also note Major Applewhite’s South Alabama, which played in bad luck most of the season and won’t be bowl-eligible, but continuing to fight as the Jags have back-to-back wins and covers into their Saturday finale against Texas State. Point spread losing streaks6: Georgia State5: Bowling Green, LSU, Maryland4: Colorado, UAB, UCF, UTEP3: Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Liberty, Louisville, North Carolina, San Jose State, Wyoming2: Air Force, Akron, Army, Ball State, Baylor, Buffalo, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Indiana, Memphis, Mississippi State, Ohio, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Southern Miss, Texas A&M, USC*Through games of Nov. 22The Sun Belt shuffles the deck atop the spread losing streak list with Georgia State replacing ULM for the lead after the Warhawks squeaked by with a cover last week against Texas State. Like the spread win list, there is plenty to dislike about many of the above-listed teams as the season comes to its conclusion as we rarely see a late-season turnaround from poor spread form in the final week. A few of the sides above look to have fallen into the abyss; spread losses are one thing, but a series of non-competitive efforts is another, which could include Colorado, UAB, and San Jose State among them. A few others, like Baylor and Buffalo, have simply been underachieving against the number all season, and wouldn’t expect a turnaround from either in the final week.Away from spread plus (+) past two decisionsNevada +33.00SMU +28.50Old Dominion +23.50Washington +21.75UTSA +19.75Notre Dame +18.75South Carolina +18.00BYU +17.50Appalachian State +17.00Iowa State +17.00Wisconsin +16.25Penn State +15.25Wake Forest +15.00Arizona +14.75Washington State +14.75Tulsa +14.25Stanford +14.00Texas State +13.50Texas Tech +12.75Western Kentucky +12.25North Texas +12.00Oklahoma State +11.75UNLV +11.50Central Michigan +10.75Northern Illinois +10.50Toledo +10.00Vanderbilt +10.00Georgia +9.75Miami +9.50Auburn +9.00San Diego State +9.00James Madison +8.50Eastern Michigan +8.00Oklahoma +8.00Utah State +7.50New Mexico State +7.00*Through games of Nov. 22As noted last week, the above list tends to get larger as we get to the end of the regular season and this week we see more pronounced “plus” numbers than we have at any point this season as 18 teams are in the teens or higher with their two game “AFS Plus” marks. We note a few others making late-season appearances above; Tulsa for one, enduring a mostly non-descript first season under new head coach Tre Lamb but playing its best in late November as the consecutive wins over Oregon State and Army suggests. Iowa State, after a midseason slump, seems to have gotten a second wind with back-to-back wins over TCU and Kansas. The Cyclones are a bit further down the list above, but the likes of Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, and San Diego State have been appearing in “AFS Plus” for most of the season.Away from spread minus (-) past two decisionsSan Jose State -32.00Oregon State -20.25Louisville -18.75Baylor -17.25East Carolina -17.75Buffalo -15.75Georgia Tech -15.50Wyoming -15.00Illinois -14.75UCLA -14.75Mississippi State -13.50Texas -13.50LSU -13.25Syracuse -13.25UCF -12.75TCU -12.00Duke -11.25Coastal Carolina -11.00Georgia Southern -11.00Texas A&M -11.00Cincinnati -10.75Troy -10.50Colorado -9.50Kansas -9.50Delaware -9.25UAB -9.00Liberty -8.75Army -8.50Air Force -8.25Maryland -7.75Ball State -7.50Memphis -7.25*Through games of Nov. 22Not quite as populated as this week’s “AFS Plus” list, the “Minus” nonetheless has some pronounced numbers the wrong way entering Rivalry Week, with thirteen teams into the teens. The wheels have seemed to come off at a few of these locales, especially San Jose State, whose exaggerated -32.00 is mostly due to the 55-10 loss on Nov. 15 at Nevada, the worst one-game “AFS” result all season.Shade/Fade alert this weekKansasWe got the feeling as early as September that things had simply gone a bit stale for the Jayhawks, with oft-injured QB Jalon Daniels back for yet another season after his production had dropped when staying mostly healthy a year ago. Kansas could partly blame bad luck for missing out on a bowl last season but the many close losses can also impact a team’s psyche and even with a mostly new group of starters this season. It’s been much the same for KU as Lance Leipold will miss a bowl for the second straight season unless KU can upset Utah on Saturday. Daniels really isn’t to blame for the team undershooting expectations this season; his 21 TD passes to four picks compares quite favorably to a year ago when he fired just 14 TD passes mixed with 12 interceptions. It’s been more about the defense, whose overall numbers (especially points allowed) have been buoyed somewhat by non-conference wins over Fresno State and Wagner but has disappeared too often at the wrong times, such as blowing a double-digit lead at Missouri way back on Sept. 6, and allowing 37 or more points in five of the six losses.Next game: Saturday vs. UtahLean: FadeLouisvillePerhaps last week’s feeble performance at SMU can be blamed, at least partly, on the absence of QB Miller Moss, whose foot injury kept him out of the 38-6 loss in Dallas. With Deuce Adams reluctant to throw the ball downfield, the Cards managed just 94 passing yards against the Ponies. The fact is, however, that Moss had been tailing off dramatically in the second half of the season, tossing a measly two TD passes across his previous four starts, with his personal late-season fade reminding onlookers what happened with Moss a year ago at USC when he similarly cooled off as the season progressed and was eventually benched in November by Lincoln Riley.It also hasn’t helped that top rusher Isaac Brown has been sidelined since getting knocked out at Virginia Tech on Nov. 1. Nonetheless, after looking like Louisville might make the ACC title game and with a chance to get in the playoff entering November, the Cards have collapsed with three straight losses beginning with an inexplicable overtime loss at home to a near-three TD underdog Cal on Nov. 8 and continuing with a maddening home loss against Clemson when the kicking game misfired, to the debacle last week in Dallas. As we saw last season, the ‘Ville has had a tendency to self-destruct for Jeff Brohm, who has still been winning in his return to his alma mater but hasn’t been able to prevent the sorts of efforts we’ve seen the past three weeks or last November at Stanford.Next game: Saturday vs. KentuckyLean: ShadeOld DominionThe Monarchs are marching through the Sun Belt in November with HC Ricky “Tecumseh” Rahne having steered them to four straight wins and a bowl qualification heading into the Georgia State finale. ODU ranks seventh nationally at 231 yards per game on the ground, paced by dual-threat deluxe QB Colton Joseph, who might be one of the top under-the-radar performers in the country having passed for 2518 yards and 21 TDs while rushing for 899 yards and another 12 scores. Though ODU got hit with a couple of haymakers from Marshall and James Madison at midseason, the Monarchs have recovered with four straight wins, outscoring the last three by a whopping 109-16 combined scoreline. We probably got a hint early, even if we didn’t recognize as much, that ODU had something going this season when playing still-unbeaten Indiana within 13 points in the opener.Next game: Saturday vs. Georgia StateLean: ShadeSan Jose StateMountain West sources were uniformly bullish on the prospects for the Spartans entering the season after a mostly-encouraging debut and Hawaii Bowl berth for ex-Navy HC Ken Niumatalolo in his Silicon Valley debut last season. Yet things began to derail as soon as opening week against a better-than-advertised Central Michigan, when a faulty kicking game missed a couple of field goal tries in the last minute. Blowing a late lead at Wyoming a few weeks later was another body blow as sources say the psyche of the team simply hasn’t been the same with three straight double-digit losses down the stretch, causing some Mountain West observers to wonder about the future of the head coach. He will likely enter next fall on something of a hot seat after this season’s collapse.Next game: Saturday vs. Fresno StateLean: FadeWake ForestWe should have been talking about the Demon Deacons a bit more this season because it’s one of the best storylines of the year. Upbeat HC Jake Dickert, lured away from Washington State after Dave Clawson retired following last season, has proven an inspired hire. All after the school’s “Made in the Dark” slogan was mocked by many at ACC Media Days at Charlotte in July, with most picking Wake at the bottom of the loop. All Dickert’s has done is get the Deacs to 8-3 and comfortably bowl eligible, turning college journeyman QB Robby Ashford into a serviceable pilot with backup Deshawn Purdie able to step in when Ashford was knocked out and deliver efforts like four TD passes at Oregon State on Oct. 11 and leading a madcap late drive into field-goal range to upset SMU at Winston-Salem on Oct. 25.Dickert’s Deacs have continued to punch above their weight all season and could realistically be sitting better than 8-3 right now, blowing a late lead against NC State and a bitter overtime loss to Georgia Tech. Still, it’s all been good and uplifting at Wake, suggesting Dickert and staff were working quite well in the dark during the offseason.Next game: Saturday vs. DukeLean: Shade
已发布: 2025-11-28 13:00:00
