Men’s college basketball megapreview, predictions for this season
Oct 29, 2025, 09:00 AM ETMore than 200 days will have passed between the Florida Gators winning the 2024-25 national championship and the start of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season, but the action finally returns on Nov. 3.ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf weigh in on storylines that could shape the new campaign — and they join Neil Paine in making their predictions for everything from the Final Four and conference winners to All-America teams and beyond.Which teams could make the biggest jumps? Which top-25 programs are primed for early NCAA tournament exits? They answer seven burning questions then make their picks below.Jump to:Championship picks, conference winner |Awards, All-America predictionsCould Florida really repeat?Borzello: Florida absolutely can run it back this season. Todd Golden brings back his entire frontcourt, a dominant group led by potential first-round NBA draft picks Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh and starting center Rueben Chinyelu. Golden also added two bona fide playmakers from the transfer portal in Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee. Sure, there are some questions about depth — and whether Haugh can play full time at the 3 — but the talent of this starting five has few peers nationally, and Golden has proved he has the chops to win big games.Editor’s Picks2 RelatedMedcalf: Florida can join the Gators team that achieved the same feat in 2006 and 2007.Still, it’s important to note that this is a completely different squad with more questions than last season’s championship roster. Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard had a rare chemistry that was the foundation of the Gators’ 2025 title run. Martin was the new face in that trio, but he also had previously helped a team reach the Final Four (Florida Atlantic). Haugh, Fland and Lee will have to build that bond on the fly as Golden guides a starting five that will feature two point guards.Lunardi: Don’t bet on a repeat in Gainesville. Not because the Gators aren’t good enough but because winning 12 straight NCAA tournament games over two years is really, really hard. The fact that UConn did it in 2023 and 2024 makes the probability of back-to-back repeats less likely — not more. I still like Florida. A lot. But this is a case where you shouldn’t blame the messenger.Will the SEC be as dominant as it was in 2024-25?Borzello: The depth will be just as good, but it won’t be as powerful at the top. Last season, the league produced two 1-seeds, two 2-seeds, a 3-seed and a 4-seed among its 14 NCAA tournament teams. With the expected improvement of LSU, we could see up to 15 teams fighting for tournament bids this season — and I would have at least 13 projected as of today. But it’s difficult to foresee four teams in the top eight again. Florida is a title contender and Kentucky isn’t far behind, but none of the other teams is a surefire Final Four threat.Lunardi: It’s important to consider the laws of probability. Is a conference likely to get better or worse after breaking the NCAA single-season bid record by three spots? Both on the court and team sheets, the SEC was every bit as dominant as the selection committee concluded its teams would be in the NCAA tournament. But there has to be at least some regression this season, if only because the uncommon sense of handing NCAA bids to teams that win only one-third of their conference games has undergone an offseason of heavy scrutiny. (As it should. No league is that good.)Medcalf: It depends on your definition of dominant.The SEC could again have a double-digit pool of representatives in the field on Selection Sunday, but it doesn’t have as many teams that could actually cut down the nets as last season. Florida and Kentucky are real contenders. It seems as if Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas could all be second-weekend teams too. Last season’s SEC, however, had three players who made the Associated Press’ All-America first team and one who made the third team. Those were dominant squads with star power.Which team will make the biggest leap from 2024-25?Borzello: NC State WolfpackLast season, we saw Dusty May and Pat Kelsey take over new programs and produce incredible turnarounds in Year 1, as their respective Michigan and Louisville squads jumped from eight wins to 27. This season, the best bet might be Will Wade and NC State. The Wolfpack went 12-19 overall last season, including 5-15 in the ACC, but Wade stockpiled a talented roster after taking over for Kevin Keatts in the spring. Led by potential All-American Darrion Williams, NC State finds itself inside my preseason top 25.Lunardi: Iowa HawkeyesA season ago, Iowa missed its second straight NCAA tournament. As a result, Fran McCaffery now finds himself coaching at his alma mater, Penn. The deeper issue involved the Hawkeyes going three straight campaigns with a sub-150 defensive rating, costing them games despite considerable offensive talent. It was an anomaly in terms of approach in the Big Ten, one that new coach Ben McCollum figures to immediately solve. McCollum’s ultra-patient style and ultra-experienced imports will surprise in their new league and sneak into the tournament.All of ESPN. All in one place.Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now
Medcalf: Washington HuskiesLast season, Washington finished 13-18 in Danny Sprinkle’s first year in Seattle, but a strong transfer class led by former USC teammates Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates III could put the Huskies in the bubble conversation in Sprinkle’s second campaign. Early matchups against Baylor, USC and UCLA will be great barometers for Washington and its new roster.First top-25 team to exit the NCAA tournamentBorzello: Creighton BluejaysThe only preseason AP Top 25 team that wasn’t in my preseason top 25 is Michigan State, but I’m not naive enough to bet against Tom Izzo, regardless of what seed he gets on Selection Sunday. So, I’ll go with Creighton. The Bluejays should be elite offensively, especially if Jackson McAndrew makes the leap I’m expecting. But they could really struggle on the defensive end of the floor, and the primary creators in the half court could be a work in progress. If things get tight in a tournament environment, it could spell an early exit.Lunardi: Gonzaga BulldogsGonzaga avoided a major hit when a judge in Washington’s Spokane County granted a preliminary injunction to Grand Canyon transfer Tyon Grant-Foster, allowing him to play this season. The hard-luck veteran is no longer in limbo to start the campaign, but the Bulldogs — who last season missed the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade — still have legitimate backcourt concerns, ones that could lead to an even earlier tournament exit.Medcalf: North Carolina Tar HeelsThe Tar Heels have more depth and more overall talent, but they couldn’t avoid the bubble with AP All-American RJ Davis leading the way last season. Caleb Wilson is a five-star prospect who will have key transfers — including Henri Veesaar — around him, but North Carolina will have to prove things have changed before fans are ready to believe.Most intriguing mid-majorBorzello: UNC Wilmington SeahawksUNCW won 27 games last season and went to the NCAA tournament, but the Seahawks will be more talented this time around despite returning just one starter. I’m mostly fascinated by the way Takayo Siddle went about that reload: poaching good players from other teams around the Coastal Athletic Association. CJ Luster II transferred from Stony Brook, Christian May arrived from Towson, Jahnathan Lamothe from North Carolina A&T and Madison Durr from Monmouth. Siddle also upgraded the interior with Virginia Tech transfer Patrick Wessler, who scored 10 points in 18 minutes against Duke last season, as well as Binghamton transfer Gavin Walsh, one of the nation’s top rebounders. This team has a chance to go to a second straight NCAA tournament — and potentially win a game.Lunardi: The Western Athletic ConferenceI’m going with an entire mid-major conference in lieu of a single team — and it’s not necessarily for good reason. Only seven schools remain in the shrinking WAC, a conference with both a serious past and a negligible future. The early departure of Grand Canyon to the Mountain West leaves a gaping hole at the top of the league — and only three teams that have ever made the NCAA tournament. Somebody has to qualify, at least in 2026, which should make for great short-term theater in the WAC.Medcalf: St. Thomas-Minnesota TommiesI’ll go with St. Thomas-Minnesota, a team that is eligible for the NCAA tournament for the first time after its transition from Division III to Division I athletics. The Tommies are the preseason pick to win the Summit League crown and potentially the conference tournament, which would make the team the first squad to go from Division III to Division I and secure an NCAA tournament berth. But it gets better. The supporters of this program are ready to spend (see: the new $175 million arena that opens next week) to make this private school in St. Paul the Gonzaga of the Upper Midwest. A run this season could put the Tommies on that path.Athlete with outside shot to win Player of the YearBorzello: Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’sIf we take out two returning All-Americans (Braden Smith and JT Toppin) and the top three freshmen (AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer), the next guy on my list would be Ejiofor. You could have made the case last season that the St. John’s big man was the most impactful player in the Big East, given his offensive rebounding, ability to draw fouls and influence defensively. The Red Storm should be right around the top five nationally this season and a legitimate Final Four contender — and if that comes to fruition, Ejiofor taking another step forward after last season’s breakout will be a major reason.Lunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, MichiganLendeborg is the right man in the right place at exactly the right time to possibly collect some major hardware. Last season, only two Division I players led their respective teams in the five major statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists, blocked shots and steals). One was Cooper Flagg; the other was Lendeborg at UAB. Now in a great spot at Michigan, Lendeborg’s number will be impossible to miss. That he could be the missing player for a legitimate Final Four contender is just a bonus.The enhanced ESPN AppWatch your favorite events in the newly upgraded ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now
Medcalf: Darius Acuff Jr., ArkansasJohn Calipari has a strong history with high-level point guards at this level. John Wall, Derrick Rose and Tyler Ulis were All-Americans under his leadership. If Acuff can be a high-level playmaker for an Arkansas team that competes for a spot in the SEC’s top tier, Acuff could enter the Player of the Year conversation.Coach with the most at stakeBorzello: Hubert Davis, North CarolinaDavis is the highest-profile coach entering the season in a tenuous situation, and he happens to coach one of the blue bloods of the sport with one of the best jobs in the country. Through four seasons at the helm, he has been to a national championship game, won an ACC championship, earned a 1-seed and been to multiple Sweet 16s. But the expectations in Chapel Hill don’t drop, and a missed NCAA tournament in 2023 combined with last season’s inconsistent 11-seed have increased the pressure on Davis. There’s enough talent on the roster to cool his seat, but that was the case last season too.» Read Borzello’s coaching hot seat guideLunardi: Rick Pitino, St. John’sPitino is 73 years old. He has won everything there is to win at virtually every level of basketball. One could argue his numbers since being selected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 2013 — a 221-72 record, a .754 winning percentage and six NCAA tournament bids in nine tries — make up their own HOF trajectory. What he hasn’t done is finish the job in his hometown. Two years with the New York Knicks half a lifetime ago and the past two with St. John’s have scratched an inch, certainly. But the chance to go out by winning really big with the Red Storm is very much on the table for Pitino in 2025-26. It could be his last, best chance.Medcalf: Kelvin Sampson, HoustonIt’s not like Sampson needs this; he has won 30 or more games in four consecutive seasons. He was within seconds of capturing the first national title of his career against Florida last season. And with the additions of three top-25 recruits, he’ll have the talent to get back to the final game of the campaign. At 70 years old, Sampson says he will always adapt, despite the changes in this game. He has proved he can do that. Yet few teams have had the five-year window he has enjoyed as a national title contender. This could be the season. And if it’s not, it could be difficult to get back to this stage with all of the real-time turbulence impacting college basketball.The 2025-26 men’s college basketball season tips off Monday. ESPN IllustrationCHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONSNational championBorzello: PurdueLunardi: MichiganMedcalf: HoustonPaine: HoustonFinal FourBorzello: Purdue, Florida, Louisville, BYULunardi: Duke, Purdue, Michigan, UConnMedcalf: Kentucky, Houston, Purdue, BYUPaine: Houston, Purdue, Michigan, FloridaConference winnersPredictions to win every conference in 2025-26ConferenceBorzelloLunardiMedcalfPaineACCLouisvilleDukeDukeDukeAmerica EastVermontVermontVermontVermontAmericanSouth FloridaMemphisMemphisMemphisAtlantic 10Saint LouisDaytonSaint LouisVCUAtlantic SunFlorida Gulf CoastFGCUFGCUFGCUBig 12HoustonHoustonHoustonHoustonBig EastUConnUConnUConnSt. John’sBig SkyMontanaMontanaMontanaMontanaBig SouthHigh PointHigh PointHigh PointHigh PointBig TenPurdueMichiganPurduePurdueBig WestUC Santa BarbaraUC IrvineUCCBUCICAAUNC WilmingtonTowsonUNCWUNCWC-USALibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyHorizonMilwaukeeYoungstown StateMilwaukeeWright StateIvyYaleYaleYaleYaleMAACSienaSienaSienaSienaMACMiami (OH)AkronAkronAkronMEACNorfolk StateNorfolk StateNorfolk StateNorfolk StateMissouri ValleyIllinois StateNorthern IowaIllinois StateBradleyMountain WestSan Diego StateSDSUSDSUSDSUNortheastLIULIULIUCentral ConnecticutOhio ValleyLittle RockLittle RockLittle RockLittle RockPatriotNavyNavyNavyColgateSECFloridaFloridaKentuckyFloridaSouthernChattanoogaFurmanChattanoogaFurmanSouthlandMcNeeseMcNeeseMcNeeseMcNeeseSWACBethune-CookmanSouthernSouthernSouthernSummitSouth Dakota StateSt. ThomasSt. ThomasSt. ThomasSun BeltTroyArkansas StateJames MadisonJames MadisonWACTarleton StateUtah ValleyUtah ValleyUtah ValleyWCCGonzagaGonzagaGonzagaGonzagaAWARDS PREDICTIONSPlayer of the YearBorzello: Braden Smith, PurdueLunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, MichiganMedcalf: Braden Smith, PurduePaine: JT Toppin, Texas TechFreshman of the YearBorzello: Darryn Peterson, KansasLunardi: AJ Dybantsa, BYUMedcalf: AJ Dybantsa, BYUPaine: Darryn Peterson, KansasNewcomer of the YearBorzello: Yaxel Lendeborg, MichiganLunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, MichiganMedcalf: Darrion Williams, NC StatePaine: Bennett Stirtz, Iowa» Read ESPN’s top 50 newcomer rankingsAll-America teamsBorzello:Braden Smith, PurdueDarryn Peterson, KansasAJ Dybantsa, BYUCameron Boozer, DukeJT Toppin, Texas TechLunardi:Yaxel Lendeborg, MichiganJT Toppin, Texas TechTrey Kaufman-Renn, PurdueAJ Dybantsa, BYUCameron Boozer, DukeMedcalf:Braden Smith, PurdueJT Toppin, Texas TechAJ Dybantsa, BYUDarryn Peterson, KansasCameron Boozer, DukePaine:Braden Smith, PurdueDarryn Peterson, KansasYaxel Lendeborg, MichiganJT Toppin, Texas TechGraham Ike, Gonzaga» Read Jay Bilas’ All-America predictionsCoach of the YearBorzello: Pat Kelsey, LouisvilleLunardi: Dusty May, MichiganMedcalf: Mark Pope, KentuckyPaine: Matt Painter, Purdue
已发布: 2025-10-29 14:57:00
来源: www.espn.com
