NFL Week 11 picks, plus predictions for Patriots vs. Jets on Thursday night and playoff projections
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!We are exactly two weeks away from Thanksgiving, and we have a lot to be thankful for tonight because we get to watch the New York Jets play! Sure, the Jets offense set football back 50 years in Week 10 with just 42 passing yards, but they won and that’s all that matters. That means they’re now on a two-game winning streak, and they’ll be putting it on the line against the Patriots tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon. In today’s newsletter, we’ll have some picks and best bets for tonight’s game, plus we have some playoff projections and we’re going to take a look at the best and worst rookie for each team this year. As always, here’s your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let’s get to the rundown. 1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Jets at Patriots
Getty Images
The Patriots (8-2) will be looking to be the first NFL team to hit nine wins this year, but to pull that off, they’ll have to beat a feisty Jets team that has suddenly won two games in a row. The Jets are 12.5-point underdogs, but they might have some confidence going into the game because they’ve won two of their past three against the Patriots.
Even if you’re not a huge fan of either team, you might want to check out the game just so you can see New England’s new “Rivalries” uniform. The Patriots will be wearing their Storm Blue ‘Nor’Easter’ jerseys for the first time ever. Anyway, here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:Why the Jets can win: If the Jets have been good at one thing this year, it’s running the football. Heading into Week 11, New York is averaging 141.8 yards per game, which is the fourth-highest number in the NFL. Both of the Jets’ wins this season came in games where they rushed for at least 125 yards, so if they can get Breece Hall going, they might be able to pull off the upset. However, it won’t be easy to run the ball, because they’ll be facing a Patriots team that has been the best in the NFL at stopping the run this year, giving up just 79.5 rushing yards per game. Why the Patriots can win: There’s a reason the Patriots are favored by almost two touchdowns, and that’s because they’re the better team. If New England plays smart football, it should win. That means no turnovers, especially by Drake Maye. The Patriots are 3-2 this year when he throws an interception, but 5-0 when he doesn’t. They also need to protect Maye. Both of New England’s losses came in games where he got sacked at least four times. If they protect Maye and don’t turn the ball over, they should be able to score at least 20 points. The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) this year when they’ve been able to hit that magic number. You can get a full preview of the game here from Jordan Dajani.If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM):
ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Drake Maye over 266.5 passing and rushing yards (-115): The Patriots QB has gone over this total in five straight games, and I won’t be surprised if he makes it six straight. The Patriots will be missing a top running back (Rhamondre Stevenson) and a top receiver (Kayshon Boutte), so that could lead to a situation where Maye feels like he has to pick up the slack. Maye has gone over 266.5 PASSING yards in two of his past three games, so he might be able to hit the over here without even including the rushing yards. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Nick Folk OVER 4.5 points (-140): The Jets have a horrible offense, but this is the lowest point total I’ve ever seen for a kicker so I have to take it. (That’s right, Vegas has sucked me in with this number.) Folk is AVERAGING 7.7 points per game this year, and he’s scored at least six points in eight of the Jets’ nine games. The Patriots have a good defense, so this could certainly blow up in my face, but I think Folk can get to five points. If you’re wondering how my props are doing this year, I’m 22-22 (8-12 on kicker props and 14-10 on all other props).Now, it’s time for some picks. PICKS FOR ‘TNF’Pete Prisco’s pick: Patriots 30-10 over JetsMy pick: Patriots 24-13 over JetsTyler Sullivan’s pick: Patriots 30-16 over JetsJordan Dajani’s pick: Patriots 30-10 over JetsJared Dubin’s pick: Patriots 27-10 over JetsWe’ve got some more picks for the game over on our CBSSports.com predictions page.
2. NFL playoff projections heading into Week 11With the NFL schedule now in mid-November, you might be wondering which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs this year. Well, I was also wondering that, so to figure out who’s going to make the playoffs, we had Stephen Oh of SportsLine simulate the rest of the season. We then used those simulations to project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs. Here’s how our projection breaks down for both conferences: AFC1. Patriots2. Broncos3. Colts4. Ravens5. Bills6. Chargers7. ChiefsFirst team out: SteelersOne reason the Patriots are projected to finish at the top of the AFC is because not only are they currently tied for the best record in the conference, but they also have the easiest remaining strength of schedule. The Patriots’ SOS is at .358, while no other AFC team is even under .430.
NFC1. Rams2. Eagles3. Buccaneers4. Lions5. Seahawks6. Packers7. 49ersFirst team out: BearsIn news that may or may not surprise you, the EAGLES are currently the team favored to win it all, according to our projection. If you want more details on the projections, including the individual playoff chances for all 32 teams, be sure to click here. 3. NFL Week 11 picks: Lions take down Eagles; Bills get back on track vs. Buccaneers
USATSI
It’s now time for your favorite part of the newsletter, which is where Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani and Tyler Sullivan give me their picks and then I give them to you. Last week, Sullivan blew us out of the water by going 11-3 with his picks, so if that’s any indication of what’s going to happen this week, you should pay extra close attention to his picks for Week 11.
Anyway, if you’re new here, here’s how things work: I’ll give you one Week 11 pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 11 selections. If you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life.Pete Prisco — Bills (-5.5) 30-23 over Buccaneers. “This is a big game for both teams, but much bigger for the Bills. They looked awful in losing to Miami last week. The Bucs might be going into a game against a team that is desperate to get a win. Josh Allen didn’t play well last week. He will in this one. Bills take it.” Prisco’s full Week 11 picks are here. Tyler Sullivan — Lions (+2.5) 27-24 over Eagles. “Backing the Lions in prime time is always a good way to lean as they are 13-2 straight up over the last four seasons when under the prime-time lights. Detroit is also 12-6 ATS as an underdog over the last four seasons.” Sullivan’s full Week 11 picks are here. Jordan Dajani — Chiefs 24-21 over Broncos (+3.5). “Nix is 1-1 vs. the Chiefs, and has completed 81% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt in those games. Chiefs win, but I’m going to take the home dog to cover.” Dajani’s full slate of picks will be released on Friday, but you can get a preview here. John Breech — Rams (-2.5) 27-24 over Seahawks. “If you’re going to slow down the Seahawks passing attack, the easiest way to do that is to sack Sam Darnold, and no one knows how to do that better than the Rams. Last year, Darnold went 14-3 with the Vikings and that broke down like this: He went 0-2 against the Rams and 14-1 against everyone else. In those two losses to the Rams, Darnold got sacked a total of 12 times. Darnold is obviously in a completely different situation this year, but he always seems to struggle when he’s under pressure. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula is very well aware of how to slow Darnold down and I won’t be surprised if he dials up the pressure on Sunday.” You can find the rest of my Week 11 picks here. For more Week 11 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page. 4. Best and worst rookie for all 32 teamsSince we’re now more than halfway through the NFL season, we can now tell which rookies have been making an impact this year and which ones haven’t done much of anything. With that in mind, Josh Edwards went through and ranked the best and most disappointing rookie for each team. Let’s check out some of the players who made his “most disappointing” list: Steelers: RB Kaleb Johnson. “Johnson has been the most disappointing because he seemed like such a good fit for Pittsburgh’s offense. Instead, the team has given carries to Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.”Chiefs: DT Omarr Norman-Lott. “Neither edge rusher Ashton Gillotte nor Norman-Lott has fulfilled the team’s vision. Those two positions were targeted by the team at the trade deadline. Norman-Lott was personally rated more highly, so the expectation is that he would at least supplement the pass rush. After five games, he went on injured reserve and was lost for the season.”Raider: WR Jack Bech. “Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. have been almost non-existent in an offense that no longer has Jakobi Meyers. Its leading receiver in Week 10 against Denver was 33-year-old Tyler Lockett.”Packers: OT Anthony Belton. “With an unsettled offensive line, one would have thought Belton would compete for a larger role, especially given injuries.”If you want to read Edwards’ full breakdown of this year’s rookie class, be sure to check out his story here.
5. Ranking bad teams by their future outlook
USATSI
Once the NFL schedule hits November, it seems like we only talk about the good teams and the playoff race, so we wanted to change things up by talking about the bad teams. Jared Dubin decided he wanted to offer some hope to a few of the bad teams out there, so he decided to rank every team with three wins or less based on how bright their future is. Let’s check out his top two teams: 1. Bengals (3-6). 2. Cowboys (3-5-1). Dubin’s take: “These two teams are essentially a legitimate defense away from being real playoff teams. They have two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and still can’t manage to win games because they simply can’t stop anybody. If either one of them can figure out a way to level up defensively, they could quickly make a move up the standings in their respective conferences. Maybe not all the way to the top, but certainly into the playoff picture.”Now, let’s check out the bottom two teams: 11. Saints (2-8)12. Raiders (2-7)Dubin’s take: “We have the Raiders last because they basically have two players (Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby) worth building around and not much else. They seem like they might need to abandon their new coaching staff after just one year. And their quarterback situation with Geno Smith is looking like a nightmare. The Saints also don’t have much talent, but they at least have more clarity about their quarterback situation: they need to go out and find a new one.”
If you’re a fan of a team with three wins or less, then you’re definitely going to want to check out Dubin’s full story. 6. Extra points: Justin Tucker landing spotsIt’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. Justin Tucker’s 10-game suspension is over. After serving a 10-game suspension, Justin Tucker is officially eligible to return to the NFL this week, so we decided to put together a few landing spots. One team that would definitely make sense is the Los Angeles Rams. If you want to see who else would make sense for Tucker, be sure to check out my story here. Travis Hunter might not play both ways in the future. With Hunter now out for the season due to an LCL injury, the Jaguars are suddenly starting to re-think how they might use him in the future. Coach Liam Coen wouldn’t commit to anything when asked if Hunter would continue to be a two-way player. We broke down what might come next for Hunter and which position might make more sense for him. You can read our full story on that here. Drew Brees returning to the announcer’s booth. The former Saints QB, who once worked for NBC, will be back in the announcer’s booth this week working for Fox. Brees will be calling the Packers-Giants game at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, which is almost perfect, because his former teammate, Jameis Winston, is expected to start for the Giants. CBS Sports actually got a chance to talk to Brees this week, and you can check out our full interview here. A.J. Brown drama continues for Philadelphia. The Eagles star receiver vented about his team during a live stream this week, calling things a “shit show.” During a press conference on Wednesday, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni seemed a little tired answering questions about Brown: “I’m close to being done answering these questions with this. “He’s working hard and he is a big part of this game plan and he’ll be a big part of the game plan going forward.” Brown said he’s not going to apologize for his comments. If you want the full breakdown of all the drama, we’ve got that here.
已发布: 2025-11-13 18:01:00
