What recent NBA Draft picks are ahead of — and behind — schedule? Assessing last four classes
We’re already a quarter of the way into the NBA season and so it’s a good time to take stock of how the league’s young players are performing. In order to do that, we’re going to look at the last four draft classes and assess, not necessarily who the best players are to date, but who is ahead of schedule and behind schedule, relative to expectations heading into the season.
Ahead of schedule: Jalen Duren, Detroit PistonsFirst, a disclaimer, Duren has not been quite as good recently as he was during Detroit’s 13-game win streak. Still, the totality of what he’s done so far has put him in contention for the league’s Most Improved Player. In back-to-back losses at Boston and against Orlando he averaged 14 points and four turnovers against just 1.5 assists, but was still dominant on the glass with 14 rebounds per game. Prior to that though, he averaged 23 points, 12 rebounds, shot 69% from the floor, and had a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. On the season, Duren’s averages of 19.6 points and 11.8 rebounds in 29.3 minutes are significantly up from a year ago when he posted 11.8 and 10.3 on 26.1. His ascension is a major reason why the Pistons currently sit atop the Eastern Conference.Duren, who just turned 22 a couple of weeks ago, has been an intimidating physical presence, efficient finisher, and high-volume rebounder since he came into the league. Peeling back the roots of this year’s ascension reveals nuanced growth in a few different areas though. First, we’re seeing some diversification in his offensive game. He’s still a lob threat who converts 67% of his attempts at the rim and straight bullies less physically imposing bigs, but now we’re seeing more playmaking, with some passing ability out of short-rolls, some short drives, and even some finishing craft in ways that are atypical for big guys. He’s not only a great pick-and-roll partner for Cunningham, but he’s also developing more chemistry with Isaiah Stewart, allowing Detroit to successfully play with two bigs for short stints.Best of the rest: Ryan Rollins, Bucks; Jake LaRavia, Lakers.
Behind schedule: Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio SpursHe’s still just 22 years old and has battled injuries lately, but so far Sochan’s fourth season in the NBA looks like it could be his worst, which is especially concerning for him since it’s a contract year. He was a Day 1 starter as a rookie, and kept that job in his second year, before losing the spot midway through last season. The major swing skill in his game has always been his shooting, and early on this season it looked like he had made some strides. Most recently though, he’s gone five straight games without a 3 and seems to be falling farther outside the rotation in the process, averaging just 12 minutes in the last three games, despite the fact that the Spurs are shorthanded up front. He plays hard, brings energy, and physicality, but his hands are problematic, and both his offensive and defensive rating have been indictments so far.
2023 NBA Draft class
Ahead of schedule: Collin Gillespie, Phoenix SunsGillespie actually wasn’t drafted in 2023, but the 2023-24 season was his first in the NBA. In fact, he wasn’t drafted at all. He spent the 2022-23 season in the G League before seeing time in 24 games on his second two-way contract in Denver. Last year, Phoenix signed him to what was his third two-year deal and he saw spot minutes in 33 games. It wasn’t until this past summer that Gillespie finally got a fully guaranteed contracted, and boy has he lived up to it. He’s averaging nearly 13 points, five assists, and four rebounds per game with shooting splits of 44/43/83 for a Suns team that has exceeded expectations, particularly with Jalen Green largely unavailable so far. His grit has aligned with the likes of Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen, and simultaneously uplifted Devin Booker, whose plus/minus numbers are vastly better when Gillespie is on the floor. Gillespie being an overachiever is no surprise to those of us who have watched him since he was younger, since he is the same player who was once without a D1 scholarship offer and playing on an EYBL’s B team, only to later blossom into the Big East Player of the Year as a senior at Villanova.Beyond the intangibles, the analytics are compelling. He ranks in the 96th percentile on catch-and-shoot attempts and has been utilized in creative ways by head coach Jordan Ott. He leads the league in assists off the bench as well as with a 16% assist rate as a driver. He’s also gotten progressively better as the season has gone on, earning more minutes in the process. In fact, he was averaging 18 points, five assists, andfive5 rebounds on 49% shooting from the floor, 48% from behind the arc, and a perfect 11 for 11 from the free-throw line over his last eight games going into last night’s game against the Lakers when he erupted for a career-high 28 points on eight made 3s, along with five assists.Best of the rest: Keyonte George, Jazz; Anthony Black, Magic; Jaylen Clark, Wolves
Behind schedule: Dereck Lively, Dallas MavericksTwo years ago, Lively was one of the most promising rookies in the NBA, despite playing in just 55 regular-season games. Last year, it was 36 games before off-season foot surgery. This year, he’s played in only seven games so far and is again out with what is being described as discomfort and swelling in that same foot. Whether it’s rooted in durability or mismanagement from Dallas’ medical staff, Lively has now missed more games than he’s played since being drafted. When he’s healthy he’s a lob threat, shot-blocker, rates extremely well defensively, and brings a terrific spirit, but Dallas’ inability to get him on the floor has robbed him of an opportunity to grow with Cooper Flagg and help establish the next wave of the future for the Mavs. 2024 NBA Draft class
Ahead of schedule: Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City ThunderThe defending champs are off to a 20-1 start despite the fact that Jalen Williams has only played in two games. That’s not only been possible because of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s brilliance, Chet Holmgren’s two-way versatility, and the team’s collectively smothering defense, but because of the notable jump by Ajay Mitchell. The 23-year-old second year guard is averaging 15 points and nearly 4 assists and 4 rebounds per game in under 27 minutes per night. He’s been a model of consistency while doing it, scoring in double figures in 18 of the 19 games without Williams in the lineup. More than that, he’s proven he can deliver in big moments, giving the Thunder a driver and creator when the reigning MVP goes off the floor and showing a growing habit of stepping up down the stretch of key games.Mitchell is now the latest example of Sam Presti’s executive brilliance. The OKC GM negotiated a draft day deal to acquire the second-round pick from the Knicks, converted his initial two-way deal last February, and then locked him into a multi-year deal this summer. While Mitchell has embraced OKC’s defensive culture and distinguished himself with numerous analytical models on that end of the floor, there’s still plenty of untapped upside. His shooting was considered his biggest swing skill coming out of Santa Barbara, and for as good as he’s been so far this season, he’s done it while making under 33% of his 3s. If that number ticks back up to where it was as a rookie (38%, albeit on very selective volume), his value is only going to continue to grow.
Best of the rest: Alex Sarr & Kyshawn George, Wizards; Reed Sheppard, Rockets; Kel’el Ware, Heat; Tristan da Silva, Magic; Jaylon Tyson, Cavs
Behind schedule: Jared McCain, Philadelphia 76ersTruthfully, there is a long list of candidates for this designation from the 2024 draft. What separates McCain though is that he provided so many reasons for optimism before going down with a season-ending injury after just 23 games as a rookie. He put up 15 points per game on 46/38/88 shooting. Through his first 10 games of this season those numbers are at seven points per game on 35/38/83 shooting. In other words, he’s still making shots behind the arc, albeit with less frequency, but has been very limited inside the lane. There were some encouraging signs last week, including 20 points in a win over Brooklyn, but Sunday saw just five points in 29 minutes against Atlanta. The bottom line is that it’s still very early, but the initial returns aren’t promising about how he might fit into a three-guard rotation with Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.2025 NBA Draft class
Ahead of schedule: Kon Knueppel, Charlotte HornetsCooper Flagg came into the season as the overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year. While I still expect that will be the final outcome, if the season ended today his former Duke teammate might very well take the award. Knueppel has played in all 21 games for Charlotte and averaged 18 points on 47/42/90 shooting while adding six boards and three assists. While he went through his first real shooting slump of season last week in back-to-back games against New York and Chicago, in the 11 games prior he was putting up 23 points per game on 51/44/94 shooting. His 69 made threes in his first 20 games set a new NBA record, while his tough shot-making ability ranks in the 92nd percentile overall in the league (on guarded catch-and-shoot attempts, per Synergy). In short, he’s already one of the best shooters in the league, but he’s more than that too. He has more 20-point games than not just any other rookie, but of any two rookies combined. He’s achieved that through his shot-making, utilizing that threat to get into the lane, his trademark two-foot finishing, and ability to move without the ball. He’s even held up better than expected defensively.
While what we’ve seen on the floor has been even better than expected this early. On a Charlotte franchise that has accumulated years of losing and been unable to establish a culture through various coaches, his maturity is vital. He’s also not alone in that as fellow rookies Ryan Kalkbrenner and Sion James, who will turn 24 and 23 in the next two months, have collectively been able to provide an atypical presence for a rookie class. Add Liam McNeeley into that and you have four rotation players and one potential star in this class, which is perhaps why there is increased rumblings about moving LaMelo Ball and resetting around these youngsters and Brandon Miller, Best of the rest: Cedric Coward, Grizzlies; Will Richard, Warriors; Caleb Love, Blazers.
Behind schedule: Brooklyn’s ClassFor as much as Charlotte’s class has drawn early praise, the Nets rookies have yet to make the impact their fan base hoped. Given how much emphasis was placed on last year’s draft, and their four first-round picks (five after trading for Drake Powell), that is understandable. The reality though is that Brooklyn made its picks with an eye on future, not necessarily immediate returns, so patience was always going to be a requisite. Egor Demin needs to develop as a shooter. Danny Wolf, who is now finally healthy, needs to adjust to new pace and athleticism after just one season at Michigan. Drake Powell, Nolan Traore, and Ben Saraf are all long-term stocks as well. Remember though, Brooklyn is a franchise known for player development, that’s how the Nets were able to accelerate their rebuilding process a few years ago, and the hope is they can do it again.
已发布: 2025-12-02 18:52:00
