Predicting every postseason matchup as regular season ends
Kyle BonaguraCloseKyle BonaguraESPN Staff WriterCovers college football.Joined ESPN in 2014.Attended Washington State University.Mark SchlabachCloseMark SchlabachESPN Senior WriterSenior college football writer
Author of seven books on college football
Graduate of the University of GeorgiaNov 30, 2025, 01:10 PM ETThe regular season is over and, except for the 18 teams playing in their conference championship games, the résumés are complete.Rivalry Week didn’t provide many surprises among the College Football Playoff contenders, while a handful of other teams reached the coveted six-win mark to achieve bowl eligibility. (Note: An additional bowl game will be added to the slate since there are 82 eligible teams.) That provides more clarity to the postseason picture than we’ve had previously, but there is still a lot that needs to be sorted out.As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.We’re here for all of it.ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.Jump to a section:Playoff picks | QuarterfinalsSemis, title game | Bowl seasonCollege Football PlayoffFirst-round games (at campus sites)Friday, Dec. 198 p.m., ABC, ESPNSaturday, Dec. 20Noon, ABC, ESPN3:30 p.m., TNT7:30 p.m., TNTBonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas A&MSchlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 OregonBonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 OregonSchlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole MissBonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole MissSchlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&MBonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 OklahomaSchlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 OklahomaFirst-round breakdownBonagura: A week ago, the ACC doomsday scenario of getting left out of the College Football Playoff seemed unlikely, but now that five-loss Duke has qualified for the ACC title game, it is very much in play. Should the Blue Devils beat Virginia to win the conference, they would be part of a discussion for what amounts to two spots among conference champions outside of the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. Presumably, one of those spots would go to the American champion, the winner of North Texas (11-1) vs. No. 24 Tulane (10-2).After that, there are a few combinations to consider, but if James Madison (11-1) beats Troy (8-4) to win the Sun Belt, it’s hard to see the committee passing on a 12-win team in favor of 8-5 Duke. The other team that could be considered is UNLV (10-2), which has a chance to avenge one of its two losses of the season at Boise State in the Mountain West title game.Schlabach: Texas’ 27-17 upset of Texas A&M on Friday night shook up my 12-team bracket from a week ago and set up plenty of intriguing storylines going into Championship Week.The enhanced ESPN AppWatch your favorite events in the newly upgraded ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now
I dropped the Aggies four spots after they suffered their first loss of the season. Losing to a rival on the road isn’t all that bad, but it’s more about Texas A&M’s overall résumé. Texas was the first true CFP contender from the SEC that Texas A&M had played all season. Yes, the Aggies’ 41-40 win at Notre Dame earlier this season is holding up well, but that alone is probably not enough to keep them in the top four.Virginia is now my projected ACC champion after SMU fell 38-35 at Cal on Saturday. The Cavaliers took down rival Virginia Tech 27-7 on Saturday to finish 10-2 after going 5-7 last season. As Kyle outlined above, a win by the five-loss Blue Devils over Virginia in Saturday’s ACC championship game would make things really interesting.CFP quarterfinalsWednesday, Dec. 31CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicAT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 2 IndianaSchlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas TechThursday, Jan. 1CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange BowlHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Texas TechSchlabach: No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 2 IndianaCFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by PrudentialRose Bowl (Pasadena, California)4 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio StateCFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 GeorgiaSchlabach: No. 11 Virginia vs. No. 3 GeorgiaQuarterfinals breakdownBonagura: This take could end up being wildly off base, but every team in the top 10 seems capable of making a playoff run.The most interesting matchup in this hypothetical quarterfinal round might be Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M, showcasing the types of rosters Texas donor money can facilitate in different parts of the state.Indiana vs. Alabama would pit the Hoosiers against two coaches familiar with Bloomington. Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer and defensive coordinator Kane Wommack were on the Hoosiers staff together in 2019. Oregon vs. Georgia would mean Dan Lanning going against one of his mentors (Kirby Smart) at a place he was previously the defensive coordinator. Ohio State vs. Notre Dame would feature two of the hottest teams in the sport.Notre Dame is one of the hottest teams in the country, but the Irish’s spot in the playoff isn’t quite a sure thing. AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vajsquez)Schlabach: At this point, I’m assuming eight teams have all but clinched spots in the CFP, regardless of what happens in the conference title games: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.That leaves essentially two more at-large spots because two are reserved for conference champions. (I’m going with Virginia and Tulane as of now.) Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas might be fighting for those spots.Is Notre Dame safely in the bracket? The Fighting Irish are playing awfully well as of late, but I’m not sure blowouts of struggling Syracuse and Stanford will carry much weight with the selection committee. Along with losing to the Aggies at home, the Irish fell 27-24 at Miami in their opener. Their best wins came against USC, Navy and Pittsburgh, which floundered down the stretch.Miami might be playing as well as Notre Dame, so will head-to-head results finally be a convincing factor for the committee? The Hurricanes fell to Louisville and SMU, and their earlier win against South Florida doesn’t look as good as it once did.CFP semifinals, national championship gameThursday, Jan. 8CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta BowlState Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 IndianaFriday, Jan. 9CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 IndianaSchlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio StateMonday, Jan. 19CFP National ChampionshipHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)7:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio StateNational championship breakdownBonagura: One thing to consider is how the Big Ten title game might affect seedings. Ohio State and Indiana are the consensus top two teams right now, but will that change come seeding time?Either way, the loser likely won’t drop below No. 3, meaning they will stay on opposite sides of the bracket to allow for a rematch in the title game.Schlabach: I’m going to continue to roll with my top four seeds: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and now Texas Tech.Georgia didn’t look great in its 16-9 victory at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Quarterback Gunner Stockton had one of his worst games of the season, and now the Bulldogs have to play their nemesis, Alabama, in the SEC championship game Saturday. Do the Tide have to win to get into the field?Ohio State looks like the strongest team after winning 27-9 at Michigan on Saturday. Ryan Day finally got that monkey off his back, and with Julian Sayin playing well, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate will be problems for any defense they play.Complete bowl-season scheduleSaturday, Dec. 13Cricket Celebration BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)Noon, ABCBonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina StateSchlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina StateLA BowlSoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Arizona State vs. UNLVSchlabach: Washington vs. Boise StateTuesday, Dec. 16IS4S Salute to Veterans BowlCramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UConn vs. Old DominionSchlabach: Jacksonville State vs. TroyWednesday, Dec. 17StaffDNA Cure BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)5 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Florida International vs. Coastal CarolinaSchlabach: Delaware vs. Old Dominion68 Ventures BowlHancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)8:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Central MichiganSchlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central MichiganEditor’s Picks2 RelatedFriday, Dec. 19Myrtle Beach BowlBrooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Arkansas State vs. Missouri StateSchlabach: Georgia Southern vs. East CarolinaUnion Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: South Florida vs. NC StateSchlabach: UConn vs. Wake ForestMonday, Dec. 22Famous Idaho Potato BowlAlbertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Toledo vs. San Diego StateSchlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego StateTuesday, Dec. 23Boca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. LouisianaSchlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Jacksonville State vs. TroySchlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern MissScooter’s Coffee Frisco BowlFord Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Southern MissSchlabach: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana TechWednesday, Dec. 24Sheraton Hawai’i BowlClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Hawai’i vs. Washington StateSchlabach: Hawai’i vs. CaliforniaFriday, Dec. 26GameAbove Sports BowlFord Field (Detroit)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Penn State vs. Western MichiganSchlabach: Northwestern vs. Western MichiganRate BowlChase Field (Phoenix)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Cincinnati vs. NorthwesternSchlabach: Cincinnati vs. Penn StateSERVPRO First Responder BowlGerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Texas State vs. Utah StateSchlabach: Texas State vs. Kansas StateSaturday, Dec. 27Go Bowling Military BowlNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)11 a.m., ESPNBonagura: Wake Forest vs. NavySchlabach: Louisville vs. NavyAllstate Playoff PredictorHow will this season’s top games affect the College Football Playoff chase? What are the current odds for the top four? The Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week’s games.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlYankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)Noon, ABCBonagura: Duke vs. MinnesotaSchlabach: Pittsburgh vs. MinnesotaWasabi Fenway BowlFenway Park (Boston)2:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Clemson vs. ArmySchlabach: NC State vs. South FloridaPop-Tarts BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3:30 p.m., ABCBonagura: Miami vs. HoustonSchlabach: Georgia Tech vs. HoustonSnoop Dogg Arizona BowlArizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)4:30 p.m., CW NetworkBonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno StateSchlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno StateIsleta New Mexico BowlUniversity Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)5:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: New Mexico vs. Miami (Ohio)Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington StateTaxSlayer Gator BowlEverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)7:30 p.m. ABCBonagura: Georgia Tech vs. TennesseeSchlabach: Miami vs. VanderbiltKinder’s Texas BowlNRG Stadium (Houston)9:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Iowa State vs. TulaneSchlabach: TCU vs. North TexasMonday, Dec. 29JLab Birmingham BowlProtective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Boise State vs. MemphisSchlabach: UTSA vs. James MadisonTuesday, Dec. 30Radiance Technologies Independence BowlIndependence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: James Madison vs. Kennesaw StateSchlabach: Louisiana vs. Western KentuckyLiberty Mutual Music City BowlNissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Nebraska vs. MissouriSchlabach: Nebraska vs. LSUValero Alamo BowlAlamodome (San Antonio)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: BYU vs. USCSchlabach: BYU vs. USCWednesday, Dec. 31ReliaQuest BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Illinois vs. VanderbiltSchlabach: Iowa vs. TennesseeTony the Tiger Sun BowlSun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)2 p.m., CBSBonagura: SMU vs. WashingtonSchlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona StateCheez-It Citrus BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3 p.m., ABCBonagura: Michigan vs. TexasSchlabach: Michigan vs. TexasSRS Distribution Las Vegas BowlAllegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Iowa vs. UtahSchlabach: Illinois vs. UtahFriday, Jan. 2Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlAmon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kansas State vs. East CarolinaSchlabach: UNLV vs. ArmyAutoZone Liberty BowlSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: TCU vs. CaliforniaSchlabach: Iowa State vs. MemphisDuke’s Mayo BowlBank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Louisville vs. LSUSchlabach: Duke vs. MissouriHoliday BowlSnapdragon Stadium (San Diego)8 p.m., FoxBonagura: Pittsburgh vs. ArizonaSchlabach: SMU vs. ArizonaBowl TBD (former Bahamas Bowl)Site, date TBABonagura: UTSA vs. DelawareSchlabach: Utah State vs. Missouri State
已发布: 2025-11-30 19:50:00
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