NFL Week 17 picks: Our experts face off on Cowboys vs. Commanders, Lions at Vikings and more
Happy Holidays to you and yours, and welcome to Week 17 of the NFL season. It’s one of the weirdest weeks of the year, as we get three games on Christmas, including the Denver Broncos at the Kansas City Chiefs, and two on Saturday, including the Baltimore Ravens at the Green Bay Packers. This could end up being the most consequential week of the entire year. Division rivals Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are all battling for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Broncos and New England Patriots are fighting for the top spot in the AFC, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need a win to stay alive in the NFC South. Get ready for an insane weekend.Which teams should you pick in Week 17, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Christmas Eve over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dajani (Cowboys -7.5): The Cowboys have been eliminated from playoff contention, but I expect Dak Prescott to still come out firing. He ranks second in the NFL with 4,175 passing yards, and is two passing touchdowns away from reaching 30 passing touchdowns for the fourth time in his career. As for the Commanders, 39-year-old Josh Johnson is starting at quarterback. I’m not sure he will be able to take advantage of this horrific Cowboys pass defense. Dallas defeated Washington earlier this year by 22 points, and the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Commanders by 11 points last week. Give me Dallas … Prediction: Cowboys 30, Commanders 20
Dubin (Cowboys -7.5): Washington is likely to be starting its third-string quarterback here, which is a massive problem even against the decrepit Cowboys defense. If Quinnen Williams comes back from his concussion to help the run defense, it may be difficult for Washington to move the ball. I expect no such thing to be true on the opposite side, where Dan Quinn’s defense has totally fallen apart this year. Even while being eliminated from the playoffs, the Cowboys should put up some fireworks against this Washington defense. … Prediction: Cowboys 28, Commanders 16
Dajani (Lions -7.5): Max Brosmer is getting the start for the Vikings. The last time that happened, Minnesota was blanked by the Seahawks, 26-0. I’m not saying that’s going to be the final score this Christmas, but can you imagine how upset Dan Campbell and his offense are after going 1-4 in the red zone last week in that loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers? I’m not even a Lions fan and I was feeling for them. Detroit has a +78 point differential this season, which is better than five double-digit win teams this year and five current NFC playoff teams. I have a feeling the Lions are going to unleash the fury of a thousand suns on the short-handed Vikings … Prediction: Lions 31, Vikings 14Dubin (Lions -7.5): As Dajani mentioned, Max Brosmer is going to start this game for Minnesota. Given what we’ve seen from him in his short time in the league, that is not at all encouraging for Minnesota’s chances. Even against a depleted Lions defense, I don’t expect him to have much success. The Lions, meanwhile, absolutely need to put together their best performance of the season here in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. After the way the first game between these two teams went, I expect them to bounce back and put up some points. … Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 10
Denver Broncos (-13.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday)
Dajani (Broncos -13.5): I feel gross taking all favorites on Christmas, but I’m not sure what else to do. I’m fading three third-string quarterbacks. The Chiefs just lost by 17 points to the previously 2-12 Tennessee Titans, so why should I expect them to cover 14 points against a loaded Broncos team that is out to avenge the upset loss they just suffered at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chiefs looked legitimately lifeless in Tennessee. I don’t think Chris Oladokun is the worst third-string quarterback in the world and offers something in terms of mobility, but this Broncos defense is an elite unit … Prediction: Broncos 28, Chiefs 10Dubin (Broncos -13.5): If you saw what the Kansas City offense looked like last week against Tennessee with Chris Oladokun at the helm, you’ll understand this pick. The Chiefs couldn’t move the ball with any degree of success against the Titans defense. How are they going to come close to doing it against a Broncos defense that is among the best in the NFL? Especially when they’re dealing with a ton of injuries. On the other side of the ball, I like the Broncos to be able to move it with relative ease against a Kansas City unit that allowed the Titans to do the same. … Prediction: Broncos 27, Chiefs 7
Dajani (Chargers -1.5): Poor Netflix wishes they had this game on Christmas instead of the “third-string showcase,” but don’t expect many points in L.A. this Saturday. We all know the Texans rank No. 1 in both total defense and scoring defense, but Jesse Minter’s unit has allowed fewer than 20 points in four straight home games. This unit held Prescott and Co. to 17 total points, and shut them out completely in the second half. I am nervous when it comes to this Chargers offensive line vs. the Texans defensive line, but Justin Herbert is out to avenge his disappointing showing vs. the Texans in the playoffs last year. While the Chargers offensive line frightens me, this Texans offense can frighten me at times, too. Seeing the two-win Las Vegas Raiders keep it close with C.J. Stroud in Houston last week was pretty rattling. I’ll take the team that is 4-0 SU and ATS over the last four games … Prediction: Chargers 17, Texans 13
Dubin (Chargers -1.5): L.A.’s defense briefly looked like it might allow last week’s game against the Cowboys to turn into a shootout, but then held Dallas to zero second-half points and turn it into a blowout instead. The Texans had been playing much better offensively in recent weeks but took a significant step backward on Sunday against a Raiders team that doesn’t stop anybody. That’s not encouraging heading into a game against Jesse Minter’s unit. The Chargers could struggle to move the ball as well against Houston’s banshee-like defense, but I think they come away with a win either way. … Prediction: Chargers 20, Texans 17Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3) (Saturday)
Dajani (Packers -3): I’m not sweating the Packers quarterback situation, whether it’s Jordan Love or Malik Willis. Similar to the Broncos, I think the Packers are going to be motivated to get back on track following the shocking collapse to the Chicago Bears. The Ravens just haven’t been the Ravens we’ve come to know and love recently. Lamar Jackson’s status again is in question after he took a knee to the back against the Patriots. Even if he does play, he’s thrown just eight touchdowns compared to five interceptions over the last eight games, and has lost six games as a starter for the first time in his career. This season has unfortunately been defined by injury for him, and Baltimore is not a legitimate contender. The jury is still out for Green Bay, who has home-field advantage this week … Prediction: Packers 24, Ravens 17Dubin (Packers -3): This is a placeholder pick until we find out which quarterbacks are playing. If Lamar Jackson is in and Jordan Love is out, I’m taking the Ravens. If both teams are playing backups, though, give me Green Bay. … Prediction: Packers 23, Ravens 16
Dajani (Seahawks -7): This is a tough game to pick. As I said last week, you have a better chance of winning the Powerball than figuring out what the Panthers are — especially when playing at home. Seriously, this Panthers team lost by 31 points to the Buffalo Bills at home in October, then upset Matthew Stafford and the Rams in Bank of America Stadium the following month. The Panthers got swept by the New Orleans Saints this season, but found a way to beat Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers as underdogs last week. The Seahawks are certainly inconsistent as well, as they needed a game-winning field goal to beat grandpa Rivers in Week 15, but won a shootout with the Rams in Week 16. Keep in mind this is a revenge game for Sam Darnold, and I imagine the Mike Macdonald defense will have the upper hand on Bryce Young … Prediction: Seahawks 24, Panthers 14Dubin (Seahawks -7): Seattle got its offense going — finally — in the second half against the Rams last Thursday, and should have a better chance of maintaining consistent production throughout the game against a weaker Panthers defense. I don’t see any way that Carolina’s going to be able to corral Jaxon Smith-Njigba, for example. On the other side of the ball, I simply do not trust Bryce Young against Mike Macdonald’s defense. Freed from having to go up against Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, that unit should bounce back in a big way, generate a bunch of pressure, and frustrate a young, inconsistent passer. Unless Carolina totally controls the game with the run (unlikely given that Seattle ranks first in yards allowed per carry), I don’t see this one being all that close. … Prediction: Seahawks 27, Panthers 13Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Dajani (Eagles +1.5): Yes, the Bills are a legitimate contender with the reigning NFL MVP at quarterback, but I have some concerns about this defense. The Bills have the third-worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 144.3 rushing yards per game. Buffalo allows 5.4 yards per rush — which ranks second-worst in the NFL. According to CBS Sports Research, those 5.4 yards per rush allowed ranks second-worst among playoff teams since 1970, and the Bills have already allowed the most 30-yard rushing touchdowns in a season in NFL history with eight. Whoa. I’m looking at Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to have big games … Prediction: Eagles 27, Bills 24
Dubin (Bills -1.5): I have all the same concerns about Buffalo’s defense. I’m definitely worried about Saquon Barkley potentially going off for a huge game here… but I also think Josh Allen is going to bounce back in a big way after his muted performance against the Browns may have knocked him out of the inner circle of the MVP race. Couple him with James Cook playing at or near the peak of his powers, I think the Bills will be able to move the ball just as well as the Eagles, and ultimately pull out the win in their home stadium. … Prediction: Bills 24, Eagles 21Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3) (SNF)
Dajani (49ers -3): The first matchup in NFL history between two 11-win teams that are both coming off 11-loss seasons! You have to credit the Bears for one of the most remarkable comebacks I’ve ever seen last week, but the 49ers are the team no one is talking about. I almost have a tough time admitting they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders given all of the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but it’s clear they can compete with anybody. The reason I’m taking San Francisco in this matchup is because of the offense. Brock Purdy has led the NFL in completion percentage (70.2%), passer rating (110.0) and first down percentage (48%) during this five-game win streak, and threw five touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday. As for the Bears defense, I think they are one of the most fascinating units in the NFL this year. They are regarded as a fantastic defense since they lead the NFL in takeaways, but they also rank bottom 10 in yards allowed per game (348.1). For that reason, give me the 49ers at home … Prediction: 49ers 30, Bears 23Dubin (49ers -3): The Bears have been pulling rabbits out of their collective hats all year, so going against them here feels at least somewhat risky. That’s especially the case because their defense remains one of the most injury-ravaged units in the league. They’re better against the run than they are against the pass, though, which helps in a game against the Bears, who lean on the run. San Francisco’s offense, meanwhile, looks explosive after the bye. So long as George Kittle is able to suit up and give it a go, I think the Niners have too many weapons offensively to be shut down. … Prediction: 49ers 24, Bears 20
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Atlanta Falcons (MNF)
Dajani (Falcons +7.5): Credit to SportsLine NFL expert R.J. White for pointing this out to me: If the Seahawks and 49ers win on Sunday, the Rams are locked into a wild-card spot no matter what. I’m not saying Sean McVay is going to automatically bench all of his starters, but could they be pulled in the fourth quarter or so? The Falcons have been competitive over the past two weeks with wins over the Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals, and rank second in the NFL in sacks with 50. With the number over a touchdown, I’m going to hold my breath for a back-door cover … Prediction: Rams 23, Falcons 20Dubin (Rams -7.5): Atlanta has won back-to-back games after dropping seven of eight… but those games have come against the Buccaneers and Cardinals. The Rams, to put it plainly, are not the Bucs and Cardinals. Even without Davante Adams, I expect them to be able to move the ball with relative ease against a Falcons defense that has regressed badly since the beginning of the season. The Rams rank 10th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and should be able to contain Bijan Robinson from going completely ballistic, and if they can get pressure on Kirk Cousins, I just don’t see a way that Atlanta can keep up. … Prediction: Rams 26, Falcons 17
已发布: 2025-12-25 15:43:00
